After a crazy race at Daytona last Saturday, the 16 driver playoff grid was set. William Byron and Matt DiBenedetto beat 7-time champion Jimmie Johnson to secure the last two spots. But can either of them make it all the way to the championship race at Phoenix?
Lets start by looking at the Playoff Standings
1. Kevin Harvick 2057
2. Denny Hamlin 2047
3. Brad Keselowski 2029
4. Joey Logano 2022
5. Chase Elliott 2020
6. Martin Truex Jr 2014
7. Ryan Blaney 2013
8. Alex Bowman 2009
9. William Byron 2007
10. Austin Dillon 2005
11. Cole Custer 2005
12. Aric Almirola 2005
13. Clint Bowyer 2004
14. Kyle Busch 2003
15. Kurt Busch 2001
16. Matt DiBenedetto 2000
For Harvick and Hamlin it has to be championship or bust. The two of them combined to win thirteen of the twenty-six regular season, with Harvick edging the battle with 7 wins. The two have them have dominated the season and should have no difficulty getting to at least the 'Round of 8' if not the 'Championship 4' with the amount of playoff points they have.
The 'Round of 16' kicks off tonight at Darlington, before travelling to Richmond and wrapping up the round at Bristol with a third consecutive night-race. The Southern 500 will be the Cup Series' third trip to the lady in black this season with Denny Hamlin looking to win his 9th race at Darlington, and I back him to do so, especially after a dominant run in the Xfinity race yesterday, charging from last to win the first two stages and almost the race win until a late race collision with Ross Chastain derailed that.
Richmond is another track that seems like it will have a Toyota in victory lane, having won 7 of the previous 9 races there. This is where I see Martin Truex Jr seal his ticket to the next round. The 19 team swept the races there last year and with 8 top 4 finishes in the last 8 races before the playoffs, it is about time that MTJ finds victory lane for the second time.
'The Last Great Colosseum' will see the end of four drivers playoff hopes. The obvious candidates to go are Cole Custer and Austin Dillon who won their way into the playoffs. I also think the fairytale story of Matt DiBenedetto comes to end. My most surprising exit is the 88 of Alex Bowman. He enters the playoffs with the second-worst average finish of the sixteen drivers with 17.0 only Custer's 19.9 is worse.
The 'Round of 12' is a wild-card round with Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. Only Denny Hamlin has one twice on a mile and an half this season, this makes picking a winner difficult, however Kevin Harvick's dominance of the February race can't go unnoticed, he will secure his place in the next round at the earliest possible occasion.
Ryan Blaney is starting to dominate Talladega winning the last two races there, and his best chance to win his way into the next round. Despite superspeedway races being unpredictable we back the 12 team to make it 3 in-a-row.
The Roval was Chase Elliott's playground last year as he charged from the back to win after a hitting the wall at turn one. At the Daytona road course this year only a late race caution could get the pack close to him. MTJ seems to be the only one to match Elliott's sucess on road courses, having the two of them win the 7 of the last 8 road course races, but I see Chase Elliott getting fourth consecutive road course win. The 4 I have dropping out at this stage is William Byron, Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer and shockingly Kyle Busch. The 'Round of 12' contains the younger Busch brother worst two tracks, the Roval and Talladega, with an average finish of 34.5 and 20.7 respectively. Busch's lack of stage points will come back to bit him eventually and this is the time.
The 'Round of 8' visits Kansas, Texas and Martinsville to set the Championship 4. The amount of playoff points that Harvick and Hamlin have racked up will really help them here, and without some disaster happening, both should make their way into the championship race at Phoenix. The last two spots were hard. I think the momentum that the 19 team have entering the playoffs will help to propel them into a position to fight for the championship. I believe the last place will come down to the two Penske cars of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. Comparing the numbers, Keselowski has at better average finish at 2 of the 3 tracks in this round, so I'll give the edge to him.
This leaves 4 drivers to fight it out at Phoenix for the 2020 Championship. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski. This seems to have Harvick written all over it, he has 9 wins in the desert, the rest combine for 2 wins, both belonging to Hamlin. All the stats point towards the 4 car, but I just have this feeling that this will be the year that Denny Hamlin will finally get the job done and shut up all the doubters saying he chokes under the pressure.
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